Nepal
Core analysis conducted and presented by Priti Sakha and Shreya K.C of Nepal in July, 2021.
Executive Summary
The Key highlights of Nepal's 2020 NDC include:
More strategic and ambitious, with much rooms of improvements
Commits to be carbon neutral by 2050
Identified GESI as a cross- cutting issue
Identifies women and youths as vulnerable groups.
Commits to capacitate and engage youths and women in the sectors of climate change.
Our recommendations for NDC enhancement:
Climate change issue is to be taken as an priority issue by the political leaders for strong and effective actions
Sector plans, policies, strategies and action plans should be aligned to one another
Inter-ministerial collaboration and coordination before and after preparing NDC
Recognize youth, women, IPs and other stakeholders as change makers
Establish proper avenues for civil organizations to contribute to achieve the targets set.
Develop more research based facts and figures
Easy access and dissemination of the climate related data, information and reports
Designated space and roles of youth are to be allocated to increase their meaningful participation
Easy access to allocated financial resources for implementation of actions and strategies
NDC Analysis
Introduction
Climate change is a burning global issue as no place on earth has been left unaffected due to the impacts of the changing climate. Nepal being a mountainous, landlocked, and a least developed country (LDC) contributing very little to the global greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission, faces the extreme impacts due to the changing climate. Several factors are responsible for making Nepal vulnerable such as challenging topography , poor adaptive capacity, dependence on climate sensitive areas such as agriculture and tourism as a means of livelihood, lack of technology and technical manpower among others. Similarly, Climate change has a disproportionate impact on women, children, elderly, disabled, indigenous, and other marginalized and vulnerable people.
Climate change will only exacerbate the existing challenges. Strong action plans along with effective implementation are essential to combat the rising threat of climate change. Nepal has also prepared different plans and policies to address the issues of changing climate, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is one of them. Nepal being a signatory country to the Paris Agreement at UNFCCC submitted its first NDC in 2016. The second NDC was submitted in December 2020, containing more specific targets to mitigate its present emission.
The first NDC pledged to reduce emissions from various sectors, but there was not enough data evidence to back it up. One of the overly claimed targets was to increase the share of electric vehicles up to 20% from 2010 level, which massively failed. The 2nd NDC was prepared by gathering the data of the existing scenario and accordingly it describes the targets and the strategies to achieve it. The second NDC has identified sectors of energy, agriculture, forest, and other land use, and waste as the major areas of work and placed gender and social inclusion as a cross-cutting issue. Improvements have been made between 1st and 2nd NDC, but still there is enough room for improvements.
2. Emission Targets
The second NDC has presented the sectoral targets to reduce the GHGs emission unlike the first NDC. 2nd NDC describes the targets in the sectors of transportation, energy, residential energy and biogas, agriculture, forests, and other land use, and waste management. The target mentioned are described below:
Nepal aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission by 2050, for which Nepal will formulate a long-term strategy (LTS) by 2021, which shows Nepal’s leadership in climate action. The LTS will pave the path towards a sustainable and resilient future in a strategic manner.
If we compare the total emission and emission reduction capacity, Nepal should not wait until 2050 to be carbon neutral as Bhutan. Nepal’s present forest coverage i.e. 44.74% can sequester enough GHGs if managed and regulated properly. Also the major energy source is renewable i.e hydroelectricity. If only we are able to reduce our dependence on petroleum products for the transport sector, we can mitigate our emission, prevent local air pollution and also save the economy.
The NDC aims to expand clean energy generation from approximately 1,400 MW to 15,000 MW, by 2030 out of which only 5-10 % will be generated from mini and micro-hydropower, solar, wind, and bio-energy, which is very minimal. Along with hydropower, the other energy sources such as solar and wind are also to be equally promoted, it should at least be 20- 25% of the total energy generation.
It also targets to supply 15% of the total energy demand through clean energy sources, which is insufficient in case of Nepal. It could be at least 25 to 30% of the total energy demand as Nepal has a huge potential in energy generation from clean energy sources like hydroelectricity.
Unlike the other countries, transportation is the major source of GHGs emissions. So, it is very important to reduce our emission from the transportation sector by using electric vehicles, proper infrastructure for public vehicles, promoting pedestrian and cycle friendly streets etc. The NDC also targets to increase the sales of e-vehicles to be 25% of all private passenger vehicles sales and 20% of all four-wheeler public passenger vehicle sales by 2025. As well as, increase sales of e-vehicles to cover 90% of all private passenger vehicle sales and 60% of all four-wheeler public passenger vehicle sales by 2030. This seems very insufficient.
The targets mentioned about transportation are only focused on electric mobility but in order to reduce the GHGs emission from this sector, we need to consider the entire transportation sector including road management, management of traffic, charging stations, and others.
For public commuting and mass transportation of goods, the NDC aims to develop 200 km of the electric rail network by 2030, which is challenging in the context of Nepal. At the moment, the only railway track of Nepal has been closed due to a lack of proper management and construction. Hence if the proper construction and regulation of the electric rail network can be done, we can easily achieve this target. Still it depends on our willingness. NDC aims to ensure that 25% of households use electric stoves as their primary mode of cooking by 2030, install 500,000 improved cookstoves, specifically in rural areas and install an additional 200,000 household biogas plants and 500 large scale biogas plants by 2025. By 2025, all these three targets collectively aim to reduce around 11% reduction in emissions from the cooking sector.
The targets set seems a bit inadequate to reduce the dependency on the traditional dirty energy sources and switch to cleaner ones.
The first NDC targeted to achieve 4,75,000 ICS by 2020 while it was able to achieve 14,23,242 in it which was a success. So, to carry the legacy of success ahead the targets set seem to be quite insufficient.
At the same time, Nepal has targeted to expand clean energy generation from 1400 MW to 15,000 MW, which is expected to increase the use of Electric cooking stoves spontaneously which makes us capable of minimizing more of the emission from the cooking sector than mentioned.
Nepal’s current forest cover is already 44.74% of which less than 3% is other wooded land (OWL). So the target to maintain 45% of the total area of the country under forest cover by 2030 is insignificant. The higher the forest coverage, the higher will be the carbon sequestration so if we could manage the forest coverage properly we can easily achieve our goal to be carbon neutral by 2050 or even faster.
In sectors of waste, the NDC aims to treat 380 million liters/day of wastewater before being discharged and manage 60,000 cubic meters/year of fecal sludge. Here, the other waste types including the e-wastes, solid wastes, and other wastes have not yet been taken into consideration despite their significant impacts.
3. Gender and Social Inclusion (GESI)
GESI seems to be missing in many policies concerning environment and climate change. Unlike the 1st NDC of Nepal which didn't mention anything about GESI, the 2nd NDC has identified gender equality and social inclusion as a cross-cutting area. But there is still a need for rigorous study on the implementation and institutional mechanism. Climate Change Management Division (CCMD) under the Ministry of Forest and Environment (MoFE) is now led by Dr. Radha Wagle, a firm believer of GESI. It also makes us hopeful that GESI will now be addressed and resolved with priority like other issues. The second NDC does mention about some of the targets in the sector of gender and social inclusion, they are as follows:
GESI and Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan and Climate Resilient Planning and Budgeting Guidelines (2021) have been built which aims to strengthen the capacities of women and other minorities to adapt to the changing climate increasing their access to mitigation and adaptation processes, tools and resources required.
There is a need for sufficient investment for the effective implementation of the action plan.
It has also aimed to develop and implement a strategy and action plan on gender-responsive climate-smart technologies and practices by 2025 which is in progress as well as an Action Plan for integrating GESI in achieving NDC targets by 2030.
Children, youth, and women in the NDC are considered as vulnerable groups, rather than acknowledging them as crucial stakeholders/right holders, change agents, and leaders in taking climate action. The victim lens needs to be changed. Equity and fairness in resource sharing and management and access of financial and technical resources of young people and grassroots women in every municipality are to be ensured so that they can also lead the activities and bring changes. The green enterprises led by youths and grassroots women groups are to be supported and encouraged which enables us to achieve targets of NDC.
The NDC aims to develop specific programs with dedicated resources to ensure full, equal, and meaningful participation of women, children, youth, Indigenous Peoples and marginalized groups in climate change-related policy development and during the planning, monitoring, and implementation processes at local, provincial and national levels as well as enhance the leadership, participation and negotiation capacity of women, Indigenous Peoples and youth in issues of climate change.
There has been no sufficient dialogues in GESI like that of other issues. Such dialogues and capacity building programs in the sector of GESI are also equally essential and important.
It also targets to ensure gender-disaggregated data when reporting on progress and achievements, which is really very important to understand and value the level of progress and achievements.
Gender specific research is also to be initiated and encouraged both at local and national context.
After the development of the federal system in Nepal, many important powers have been handed over to the local government for effective planning, implementation, and monitoring. Similarly, NDC mentions that all 753 local governments will prepare and implement climate-resilient and gender-responsive adaptation plans by 2030, which aims to address climate change and disaster vulnerability and risks and prioritize adaptation and disaster risk reduction and management measures focusing on the vulnerable groups including women. This is really very essential to address the grassroot level issues and resolve them effectively.
The local government lacks sufficient indicators and data related to climate change and GESI. Sufficient data and indicators are to be developed for effective planning and implementation.
GESI and Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan and Climate Resilient Planning and Budgeting Guidelines will be formulated by the end of 2021. This will be essential to integrate gender issues sectorally to achieve climate resilience.
A strategy and action plan on gender-responsive climate-smart technologies and practices will be prepared and implemented by 2025. Due to poor technological advancement and access to technologies, Nepal tends to lag behind in the sector of adaptation. Along with technologies, skilled human resources are also required to operate them to bring out effective outputs.
There is a lack of knowledge and skilled manpower working in the sectors of GESI. Skilled human resources are to be generated for working in the sectors of GESI which will help make works more effective and efficient.
A gender specific focal point/ focal person is also to be allocated in order to keep a track on the ongoing processes.
4. Youth Inclusion
Youths under 40 represent 40.3 percent of the total population in Nepal, who play a significant role in order to combat these challenges so they are to be considered as important stakeholders for achieving the targets and bringing changes. But youths have only been identified as a vulnerable group. There is no ambition without the engagement of young people. Young people possess the energy, skills, innovative and creative ideas that can be nurtured through their meaningful engagement and participation.
A dedicated section on children and youth in NDC and other climate policies will be significant to nurture the expertise of young peoples.
Meaningful participation of children and youth must be ensured in all major climate policies both at national and international levels
Designated youth focal point is required at the Ministry of Forest and Environment representing young people and advocating for the inclusion of young people in the NDC processes as well as communicating and mobilizing youths and climate organizations to continue to get engaged in NDC enhancement processes and other climate-related activities.
Partnerships and coordination should be developed between governments, intergovernmental, non-governmental and youth organizations for joint environmental initiatives aimed at building the capacity of youth as future leaders and driving forces behind a new climate change regime.
Urgent scale up and acceleration in the investment for child- and youth-responsive adaptation, disaster risk reduction and mitigation measures, with a particular focus on reaching children most at risk, and advocacy for child-sensitive criteria are to be mainstreamed in multilateral funds
Funding support for CSO/ CBOs especially youth organizations active on climate action should be increased to strengthen their capacities and accelerate climate actions.
5. Adaptation
Along with mitigation, adaptation is also to be considered equally. Nepal aims to prepare and implement the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) by 2021. The NAP will outline the long, short and mid term adaptation goals. As per the National Climate Change Policy (2019), adaptation priorities and actions will cover all climate-sensitive sectors epitomizing the inter-sectoral nature through an integrated approach. Nepal has already prepared the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) for the adaptation in national and local levels. The major targets mentioned in the 2nd NDC in the sector of adaptation are as follows:
The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) will be updated every ten years and the National level Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) will be updated every five years. The report after preparations is not to be limited to documentation only; instead, they are to be disseminated amongst the locals and responsible stakeholders. This will help people be aware of the ongoing changes and quickly adapt to those changes.
Institutional mechanisms will be established and operationalized by 2025. A clear institutional mechanism is essential. Along with the development and implementation institutions, a separate institution for monitoring and evaluation must also be allocated to address the ongoing progress and failures.
Climate change-related education will be included in all secondary schools, and 2,000 climate change adaptation resource persons will be mobilized locally by 2025. Climate change-related education should be included from the primary levels rather than the secondary level in order to bring behavioral changes amongst the children from the very beginning and develop climate-friendly habits. In addition to theoretical education, practical education is also to be included.
Climate-sensitive diseases surveillance systems will be strengthened by 2025. Data-driven process in the sectors of climate change is really very important. This will help to develop more effective strategies and action plans to develop resilience.
Climate risk assessment mechanisms will be integrated into the WASH program planning and implementation cycle by 2025. Public Weather Services (PWS), including the Agro-Meteorological Information System, will be strengthened and established. There is a lack of sufficient meteorological data required for the study. Hence, it is essential to establish and strengthen the data and information system, which would encourage more research and development.
By 2030, a multi-hazard monitoring and early warning system covering all the provinces will be established. Ten years is a long duration. So, the time period can be shortened as possible which will help us prevent the loss and damages resulting due to disasters and hazards.
By 2025, a national strategy and action plan on Loss and Damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts will be devised. This will help to reduce the loss and damage resulting due to climate change.
By 2022, a Climate Finance Strategy, and National Capacity on Climate Finance Management will be formulated. Easy access to the financial resources as required will help make work easier and convenient.
Adaptation measures based on circular economy and sustainable resource use will be developed and implemented, which is one of the major requirements. The adaptation process is to be taken parallel to the process of economy and sustainable development as well.
By 2025, a Climate Information System will be established and operationalized. Five years of time frame is too long, so the climate information system is to be established and operationalized as soon as possible in order to support the data driven process.
The Adaptation plans and strategies should address and resolve immediate issues and needs under priority along with the mid and long term goals and visions. Technical advancement and human resource development has been identified as the major need to improve the adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability. In Nepal there is inadequate climate related data though it has improved in our transition from 1st to 2nd NDC. The climate data should be properly documented and circulated to all the stakeholders, which will also bridge the gap for access to information. LAPA was prepared in 2010, as a strategic tool and to develop appropriate adaptation mechanisms to enhance the resiliency of the poor and vulnerable. It also commits that 80% of the financial resources will directly go to the local level and if implemented effectively, can bolster public awareness and public participation in the related works.
Despite having the least carbon emission, the submission of 1st and 2nd NDC by Nepal sends a positive message to the world that top vulnerable nations are being the climate leader. It also pressurizes the top emitter countries to drastically reduce their own emission. There was a lack of data to back up the 1st NDC, which is also the reason Nepal couldn’t achieve its targets. The targets in the 2nd NDC seem to be backed up by the necessary data, which increases our chance to achieve our targets in time. The biggest challenge for implementing the NDC is going to be the budget required. 2nd NDC states that the cost of achieving Nepal’s NDC conditional mitigation targets is estimated at $25 billion. The cost of achieving unconditional targets outlined in the NDC is estimated to be USD 3.4 billion. For securing the budget required for the implementation of NDC, the government is to count on financial, technological and capacity-building support from various climate funds, bilateral/multilateral agencies and development partners.
The major shortcoming of 2nd NDC is it does not reflect Nepal’s position on adaptation and loss and damage which have been long-standing priorities for Nepal and other least developed countries.
However, it is vital for us to walk the talk and achieve the set targets. Nepal has just got a new Prime minister and a new election is to be held in another year. There is a high chance that this shift in leadership will impede the NDC implementation process.
It is crucial that political parties take climate change as a major agenda for their existing work as well as for the new election. Also, inter-ministerial coordination and collaboration seems vital to achieve our targets.
6. References:
https://climate.mohp.gov.np/downloads/National_Framework_Local_Adaptation_Plan.pdf
Authors
Priti Sakha, Nepal NDC Ambassador: Priti Sakha is a 23-year-old passionate environmentalist from the country of mountains, Nepal. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in BSc. Environmental Science. She has more than three years of working experience in the sectors of climate change. She has mostly been engaged in awareness spreading, advocating policies, and taking action for the climate. She currently works as a host at Radio and Youth Podcast produced by Youth for Environment Education and Development Foundation and as an NDC Ambassador from Nepal for the NDC Analysis Project from Care about Climate. She believes that every small action by an individual can make a big impact, and ask everyone to think and start acting green before its too late. “Your small action for beautiful tomorrow is all that we can ask for”.